8.7? 8.7 AFTERSHOCK?!?!

I was pretty amazed when I heard about Indonesia's latest earthquake. Of course I was amazed at the original 9.1 shock. I've followed earthquakes, seismology, and geophysics in general quite a bit since junior high (yes, I was a nerd), and so I think I know a thing or two about them. The most important thing to know about earthquakes is we don't know nearly enough about them!

TSUNAMI!... not!
So immediately, everyone was concerned about the subsequent tsunami - and rightfully so. Yesterday's quake was a close cousin of the previous one, whose wave killed >200,000. Same fault line (undersea), same approx. depth, same approx. magnitude (well, in the neighborhood). But no tsunami. Why?

It's been interesting to me to see this "why"question start to emerge in the media coverage. Even funnier to see a news teaser such as, "Why no tsunami? Tune in at 11 to find out!" - only to tune in and get the expected "We don't know."

And we don't know. The historical record of major coastal quakes reveals a seeming randomness as to whether a tsunami will result or not (and to further confuse things, whether the wave is preceded by a receding tide or just appears suddenly). Experts are only just beginnng to come to grips with some of the reasons, and are far from being able to predict at all.

Wave goodbye!
That is, most of us don't know. I noticed on The Weather Channel last night, a staff meteorologist (missed his name) offered an explanation that meshed with my own personal theory. (That is, the first quake had major vertical displacement of the sea floor which would push up a big wave; while the second quake involved mostly horizontal displacement - shear - which would not disturb the water above much.) What bothered me was that he explained this as fact and not theory, when it is much too early to really know.

Other explanations held that there was a wave, but while the first earthquake focused its energy north and west - towards India and Thailand - this earthquake focused its energy south - away from any landmasses and so went undetected. I should point out that this too is just speculation. I'm also not crystal clear on what is meant by "focused energy."

The Swarm
Aside from the lack of tsunami, the most important and shocking thing about this recent quake was its proximity - both in place and time - to the one in December, in conjunction with its astounding magnitude. I heard another guy on CNN I think (science advisor to the USGS?) explain that this was NOT an aftershock, that it occured on a separate segment of the same fault. Possible, but I'm going to wait and see.

[UPDATE: the large map on this page illustrates separate rupture zones on the fault, and these two recent quakes appear indeed to be on separate zones and still quite close together. Bear in mind that these quakes didn't happen at a single point, but rather ripped along the fault for 100s of kilometers - like a zipper. I want to presume that the epicenters shown are really just the start of the rip.]

I'm willing to entertain this theory because I can hardly imagine an after-shock of 8.7 - almost incomprehensible. An 8.7 is very very rare as a seismic event as it is. The USGS science advisor on CNN did acknowledge that the two earthquakes were almost certainly related (the first increasing stresses on nearby sections) so in a less strict sense it is an aftershock, but in a technical sense (on a different fault segment) it is not.

Bringing the subject back to me...
Finally, to introduce my new insight to the story. [EXCLUSIVE: MUST CREDIT EQUITUS]There's been increasing talk in the geophysics community in the past few years about earthquake "swarms" - major seismic events bunched up in space and time, one tremor setting up the area for another, etc. A few recent earthquakes in Turkey have a lot of prognosticators deeply worried about Istanbul as the next likely epicenter to an ongoing Turkish swarm. These earthquakes in Turkey are relatively small, in the 6-7 range, and their timing is spread out over many years.

Instead, I would look to the precedent of the New Madrid earthquakes of 1811-12, in southeast Missouri. These were a series (2 or 3) of very strong earthquakes - 8.1 or so - that occured in a span of only 3 or so months. Were they aftershocks or not? I don't know. But as far as size and proximity in time, I can't think of any other examples of such a serious "swarm" of earthquakes in recorded history.

That said, I have to admit the fault conditions in Indonesia and those in SE Missoura couldn't be more different.

Into the fray

I found myself getting particularly perturbed
by news (via a "crushing of dissent" link at Instapundit) that Gay Patriot - an occasional read for me - was discontinuing his blog because of harrassment from blogger Michael Rogers. Rogers took offense at a post of GPs, and then went way over the line to retaliate (such as phoning GPs employer to get him fired).

I decided to spend time at Rogers' blogACTIVE, having never read it before.

I then took a long, hot shower.

I find it unbelievable
the lengths and depths some people will go in the name of politics. I've always been supporting of gays and gay rights to live as they wish. Along with this I've always been supportive of individual privacy when it comes to sexual preference. What Rogers is doing, what he calls reporting (god help us all), violates all principles of propriety, debate, and politics. (Of course, this comes in the wake of Gannon-Gate, where a conservative small-potatoes reporter who happened to be gay came under intense fire from the same "tolerant" lefty blogs for his sexual preference/political stance.)

What's even more infurtiating is that Rogers and Co. actually seem to believe in the justice of his activities, serving some sort of "greater good" in his mind. And even more, he seems to be generally supported by his peers on the left - cheered on in fact.

Can anyone think of any time in our political history when such behavior has been considered acceptable?

Clearly, no. But no matter - the LLL believes such unprecendented actions are acceptable in this case, because (in their opinion) GWB is such a bad and dangerous person to be occupying the White House. "By Any Means Necessary" - once the catch phrase of desperate radicals - is now the order of the day for Democrats and their allies.

When will this madness end?

At least as long as such "activists" believe that this opinion they hold so dear is more than opinion - i.e. fact. Unfortunately, such is the nature of "received wisdom" that the true faithful will never face criticism or logic, nor abandon their cause. The best we can hope for is completely marginalization, exorcizing them from the Democrat Party. Although I projected this would happen after Bush won reelection, the lack of any reasonable alternatives from the left has kept the lunatics in play.

A lose-lose situation for as long as it lasts.

Another small step (giant leap - pending)

My Blog-Roll
I've been reading blogs for quite a while, political ones anyway. I try to keep up with the usual mainstream to right-leaning sites like Instapundit, The Corner, Power Line, Teem Bleah, VodkaPundit - and I've mostly stayed away from the more rabid fringes. An example of some other blogs I frequent include Captains Quarters, Oxblog, Roger Simon, and Belmont Club - although there are many others that I'll mention some time. I also make myself drop into places like KOS, Atrios, and DU every now and then, to try to get perspective.

Pontifications Past
I've sometimes participated in comments as equitus, but I've not become a regular at any one site yet. Funny though, I was a regular in CNN's old board before they closed it down in '02(?) - for a few months. More recently I was very involved in the current events email list at my job, where I was usually the sole voice from the right (a SF Bay Area software company). For the most part the discussions were very civil, but I was greatly outnumbered and I sometimes felt disgusted by some of the things my fellow contributors would write. I'd typically retreat - stop replying - rather than proceed with full-blown confrontation. I mean, this was at work after all!

Meme o' Mine
I think I sometimes have some interesting thoughts regarding current events. Lately I haven't had much outlet for my point of view. My wife, bless her, will sometimes indulge such subjects with me but I want to try to reach out. I don't claim to be an expert on such things, but I'm an avid hobbyist - and I have a particular knack for original thinking. Outside-the-box, if you will. I also like to make predictions, and while of course I'm often wrong I've been surprisingly right on some major things. (Let's see how I do now that I've made this boast...)

One small step

It's about time that I started a blog of my own. Long overdue in fact.

I spent the first 20 years of my adult life as an early adopter when it came to personal computers and the Internet. But lately I've eased up quite a bit and now I seem to be falling behind even. This ain't good, as I've based my career thus far on my tech savvy.

Well, it's time I mixed things up a bit in my life. I'm at a turning point, between careers so to speak. I'm hoping that writing this blog will help me to realize what I want to do next.

That's right. Another self-indulgent, self-conscious, belly-gazing blogger.

A thousand apologies.