Hamas in Charge

Captain Ed at Captain's Quarters is understandably dire about the election results in the Palestinian parliament. I see a possible silver lining, and it's not the typical one - that Hamas will moderate under that responsibility. (Scott Johnson pointed to David Horowitz's dashing of that hope here.)

First of all, I can understand why the voters voted as they did. Fatah operated under extreme corruption. Aid intended for citizens was routinely siphoned off - leaving virtually nothing for the needy. At the same time, the social services wing of Hamas provided what Fatah should have - food, schools, etc. I agree with some that Hamas is firstly a charity, but I also believe that it tightly holds to it's commitment to the elimination of Israel through terrorism - and that violence is endemic to its members. In short, I think Palestinians voted with their wallets, so to speak - with the militant foreign policy a secondary concern.

I think this will be a case where things have to get worse before they get better. Hamas will have a majority government and thus total responsibility for the Palestinian territories and its people, something they are unprepared for. If things go as expected, they will impose a fundamentalist regime - alienating the moderates. At the same time, a lot of funding for the territories will dry up - reduding their ability to provide for its citizens, The government will face extreme pressures from abroad to renounce terrorism, and will lack the political skill to make friends and supporters.

Assuming that there will be another election on schedule (when is that, by the way?), Hamas will by then have lost most of the good will it has earned among the voters. That's a big assumption, I know, but I think holding elections is one of the few things that the international community will insist upon.

I'll acknowledge a weakness I see already in my argument, and that is the conditions for maintaining financial assistance from the international community. If Hamas agrees to elections, they'll continue to receive money - which in turn will improve their standing among voters. My head hurts!